The 2024 election will be held next Wednesday (14/2/2024). One of the things that is being discussed by the public is the potential for the Presidential Election to be carried out in 1 or 2 rounds. Political Science Lecturer at FISIP UB, Wawan Sobari S.IP., MA., Ph.D provided his analysis.
According to Wawan Sobari, based on the latest survey conducted by Political Indicators and Poltracking, the results obtained by candidate pair 02 ranged from 49.4-54.2% and 48.8%-54.6%.
“This means that there is still a possibility that the margin of error is below 50%. Yes, although the trend of pair 02 tends to rise. However, pair 01 also tends to rise,” he said, Tuesday (13/2/2024).
However, on the other hand, said Wawan Sobari, statistically the choice of pair 02 is relatively high.
“So, above 87% of them will not change their choice, but the survey results show that their position cannot be confirmed,” said this alumnus of ISS Den Haag, Netherlands.
“This means that if there were people who chose pair 02, they would not change their choice, they would remain firm in their choice but the number was less than 100 percent, so this could mean that their potential to change their choice is still there,” continued Wawan Sobari.
However, Wawan Sobari also believes that it is not certain that the presidential election will take place in two rounds considering the survey results that have been released. He actually focused more on accompanying opinions regarding the presidential election in one round to save the budget.
“The most important and worrying thing is actually the attempt to lead to the opinion that this election should only be held in one round to save the budget. That’s what I disagree with,” he explained.
Why? Because according to Wawan Sobari, the election budget had been prepared beforehand. Then, for example, one round of elections is due to savings of around 12-15 trillion, which is not necessarily significant for people’s welfare.
“So the remaining funds due to one round of presidential elections are the budget that should have been for two rounds reallocated for productive ones or those intended to improve the welfare of the people? The answer is, we can’t get that guarantee,” he explained.
This Flinders University of South Australia alumnus believes that one round or two rounds should not be seen in the context of budget savings.
“So it’s as if you’re saying that, just one round then, so that later in the election the budget will be smaller, there will be savings. That’s what I think is not right,” stressed Wawan Sobari.
What must be seen from the election process according to Wawan are democratic values, civil freedom values, political participation values, performance values of public institutions and also legal certainty running with Luberjurdil (direct, public, free, confidential, honest and fair).
“I actually hope that in one round or two rounds the people will decide, during the election it will be Luberjurdil,” he stressed.
For Wawan Sobari, this principles are the most important, since democracy means power in the hands of the people, or rule by the people.
“The people are at the center of power, and elections are an arena for people’s sovereignty. “Don’t let the sovereign people be tarnished by the actions of the ruling elite who want to win through unfair means,” he stressed.
For your information, the 2024 Election will not only elect the President and Vice President but also the DPR RI, DPD RI, Provincial DPRD and Regency/City DPRD. (*/OKY/UB PR/ Trans. Iir).
