Academician of Government Science Predicts that Only Two Parties Will Become Opposition

The 2024 election is entering the counting period at the sub-district level. However, the results of quick count can predict who will enter the government and who has the potential to become the opposition.

Lecturer in Government Science at Brawijaya University, Dr Mochtar Haboddin S.IP., MA, said that theoretically, someone who loses will become the opposition while the one who wins will lead the government.

“However, if we talk about the Indonesian context, there will still be political parties that will always maintain and supervise so that balance in government is maintained. In fact, it can be seen that there has been consolidation carried out more quickly by the winners than by the losers,” he explained, Friday (23/2/2024).

This Gajahmada University alumnus predicts that only two political parties will be outside the government, namely PDIP and PKS.

“Perhaps which still consistent for me in holding the tagline for change may be PKS on one side, and on the other side there is PDIP. However, people outside of these two parties may be tempted by politics, since people outside of power are actually not good, in the Indonesian context,” said Mochtar.

He gave the example of large, experienced parties such as Golkar always looking at the government. Mochtar even said that certain parties were willing not to nominate their leaders to see who had a chance of winning.

“Golkar knows that very well, for example, being outside of power feels uncomfortable. Moreover, in 2029 the battle may be even fiercer because of new players, perhaps from yesterday’s remnants who emerged, or from new candidates, whether from parties or non-parties,” he stressed.

Mochtar confirmed that President Jokowi’s meeting with the General Chair of Nasdem Party, Surya Paloh, would discuss their chances of being together again in government.

“Yes, my guess is that it might be like this, that’s it, the party is over, it’s time for us to build strength to build Indonesia together. Maybe that’s how the conversation was,” he stressed.

This researcher in the field of government innovation assesses that in Indonesia there is a separation between ideology and existing reality.

“Since we don’t have a clear ideology, what’s the end? Jump right, jump left. Offered the minister position, then jumped again,” explained Mochtar.

He suspects that the composition of Ministers in the 2024-2029 cabinet will be filled by the party chairman. This is because the most likely way to not be in opposition and become part of the government is to take the party leaders and give them positions.

“That’s what I’ve seen in the last 5 years, that those who have the potential for resistance, those who have the potential to fight and act as opposition, are all embraced and offered power,” he stressed.

At the end of the interview, Mohtar Habodin quoted Kuntowijoyo’s opinion regarding power.

“So, power is tempting, and power is always contested. According to Kuntowijoyo, who doesn’t need power? Everyone needs power,” he concluded. (FISIP PR/ OKY/ UB PR/ Trans. Iir)