FH Academician Reveals Strategy of Anticipating Two Rounds for the 2024 Presidential Candidate Election

Ibnu Sam Widodo, S.H., M.H., Constitutional Law Expert, Faculty of Law, Brawijaya University | photo: PSIK FH UB

The Indonesian nation is preparing to return to the democratic party on February 14 2024 to determine the choice of the pair of national leaders and their representatives who are worthy and the best in the eyes of the public. The strategy for one round winning is a strategic discussion for all parties.

According to Ibnu Sam Widodo, S.H., M.H., as an expert in Constitutional Law, Faculty of Law, Brawijaya University, three pairs of Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidates are ready to compete with integrity on the 2024 Election stage by referring to the commitment to implementing the Election as stated in Law Number 7 2017 Concerning General Elections.

“In Law Number 7 of 2017, elections are a means of sovereignty to elect members of the DPR, DPD, President and Vice President, as well as DPRD members who continue to prioritize the principles of direct, public, free, secret, honest and fair based on Pancasila and the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia 1945,” said Ibnu Sam Widodo in a written statement, Tuesday (13/02/2024).

Dodo said that each candidate pair had certainly prepared a political direction and strategy in order to realize the political ideals and interests of each candidate.

“As Peter Schorder argues in his book Political Strategy, every strategy always has the goal of winning within the scope of obtaining votes, winning elections in obtaining a majority of votes for the implementation of a regulation or policy. “This strategy aims to gain as much influence as possible in order to obtain good results in the election,” said Dodo.

According to Dodo, all candidate pairs will make every effort to obtain more than 50% (fifty percent) of the votes as an absolute victory in the one-round winning strategy. Because the implementation of one round of elections will affect the following things globally, namely, firstly, Constitutional Affairs.

With elections that only need to be held in one round, it will certainly encourage the acceleration of the implementation of government programs that have been prepared. Even in a constitutional political system, the unification of parties supporting coalitions or the formation of opposition parties will certainly immediately fill parliament to fully support the realization of a presidential system with checks and balances. This means that the executive and legislative functions of the state can immediately be formed. Considering that our electoral system adheres to a proportional representative system that count every vote received and practically no votes are considered lost. Even in a proportional system, voters’ votes for certain small parties will still be counted even if they only get a few votes and are not even able to place their representatives in parliament.

Coalition theory teaches that not all parties are worthy of being partner members in forming a coalition cabinet. Having a sufficient majority of seats to form a majority government does not guarantee the stability and longevity of the coalition if the ideological distance and the coalition built are not counted. So that several possible coalitions that will occur include a Minimal Winning Coalition (a coalition based on maximizing power by ignoring unnecessary parties); Minimum Size Coalition (Coalition built by a large party with smaller parties to simply achieve a majority vote); Bargaining Preposition Coalition (Coalition with the smallest number of parties in the coalition); Minimal Range Coalition (Coalition based on closeness to ideological tendencies); Minimal Collected Coalition (Coalition that occurs between parties that have the same policy orientation); Policy-viable Coalition (A coalition that occurs between parties that specifically have the same policy concerns.)

Second, Social. The issue that has emerged in the social sector is the possibility of a phenomenon of political popularization which is feared to become a threat to society. If the election is successfully held in one round, it will certainly greatly reduce the possibility of negative polarization issues that will develop, especially if there are two rounds of elections which will of course involve two candidate pairs from different camps.

Political polarization itself can mean that there are quite extreme differences or cleavages of the masses due to differences in ideological views and identities of the supporters of each candidate pair. It becomes negative when the differences emerge to surface to become an issue that is ready to be processed with the intention of bringing down the opposing camp so that an unhealthy campaign will occur. People will be led to strengthen the opinions and interests of their individual groups by throwing negative comments at each other that can divide the nation. For example, the issue of strong polarization is in the religious sector, where it is possible that certain religious groups are very fanatical about certain candidate pairs and then attack each other with other religious ideologies that have the image of competing candidate pairs.

Third, Economy. Economic growth is also predicted to stabilize more quickly if the election only lasts for one round. The winning candidate pair will also immediately realize their economic progress program which is expected to be realized soon. Of course, each winning candidate pair has their own financial policy breakthrough which must be appreciated positively in order to build a better national economy. In fact, by carrying out the election in one round, it will certainly save huge costs that are allocated as costs for the possibility of a second round later.

List of Candidate Pairs for President and Vice President for the 2024 Election | source: kpu.go,id

Anticipation Strategy for Two Rounds of Election for Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidates in 2024

Dodo revealed that the strategy towards winning the candidate pair does not rule out the possibility that it will continue in the second round of the presidential and vice presidential election if the results in the first round do not meet the provisions in Article 6A number 3 of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia.

“To determine the one round winning, the candidate pair must obtain more than 50% (fifty percent) of the total votes in the general election, with at least twenty percent in each province spread across more than half of the provinces in Indonesia,” he said.

The two candidate pairs who achieve the highest number of first and second votes will be re-elected by the people through a general election. Referring to these provisions, it is of course very likely that the 2024 elections can be held in two rounds.

According to the data from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), 18 survey institutions have released it, from 14 survey institutions describe the potential for elections to occur in two rounds. In fact, the results of calculations at several survey institutions show that the electability of the three candidate pairs has not yet reached fifty percent. So, there is a high probability that elections will occur in two rounds.

“There is no other choice for the candidate pairs who advance to the second round of elections other than optimization and more massive movements in carrying out their campaign programs which have been implemented in the previous stage,” said Dodo.

Responding to this, Ibnu Sam Widodo gave several things that must be optimized by candidate pairs if the election occurs in rounds, namely: first, Determining Supporters in the Coalition Party.

“If it is true that the 2024 election will take place in two rounds, then there are several things that need to be prepared again by the teams of presidential and vice presidential candidates. Of course, political mapping again and foresight from each candidate team is needed as well as a more mature strategy. An inter-party coalition in the second round is certainly a strategic issue that must be taken up quickly with various political risks at stake. The candidate pair team that has lost and does not have a chance in the second round only has the option to join one of the candidate pairs that excelled in the first round so that it will form a stronger base of vote acquisition defense. Of course, this will be very profitable for the candidate pairs who have formed this coalition. So, a more massive strategy is needed for candidate pairs who do not receive coalition support,” said Dodo.

Second, expanding the Target Group and Funding. Expanding the target group must be one of the main targets in expanding the network to support vote acquisition. Approaches using various methods must be pursued more intensively in order to obtain equal power, whether by meeting community leaders and residents directly in various forums, or making efforts on even more massive social media platforms by collaborating with more segments. It cannot be denied that strengthening the defense base of funding is required to be stronger so that it can fund all more massive campaign activities. To be able to capture the popular vote base in the regions, of course, requires stronger funding that must be provided by each candidate pair, because there are still many people who will vote if a particular candidate pair has provided direct assistance to the community. This will certainly be beneficial in several economic sectors for certain business holders, such as basic food providers who are able to provide large quantities which then distributed for free under certain party flags, and providers such as internet which of course will also be needed for air attacks carried out by candidate pairs in delivering campaigns via social media. People’s need to access the internet will also increase.

Third, Upgrading Knowledge and Imaging. Upgrading the knowledge and readiness of each candidate pair in arguing on the debate stage must be maximized so that there are no more statements that are considered stuck or blundering in the eyes of the public which will then actually tarnish the image of each candidate pair who have worked so hard to build their image in the previous stages. Likewise, we must be careful in acting in public spaces, considering how quickly a moment can circulate via social media, so wise imaging is needed for each candidate pair in this second round. (rma/FH PR/OKY/UB PR/ Trans. Iir)